Beyond the Balance Sheet

A 30-60-90 Day Owner's Checklist for Geopolitical Crisis Management

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When the crisis hit, the owners who had a checklist acted in days. The owners who did not are still meeting about it.

This article consolidates the frameworks from all preceding articles into a single, time-bound, actionable checklist organized by three phases: stabilization (days 1 to 30), strategic assessment (days 31 to 60), and recovery positioning (days 61 to 90). It is designed to be printed, distributed to your executive team and operator, and used as a working document reviewed weekly.

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Days 1 to 30: Stabilization

The crisis has just struck. Occupancy has collapsed, staff are under pressure and the ownership team is in reactive mode. The priority is to stop the financial and operational bleeding before any strategic decisions can be made.

Across three workstreams, the objective is to establish control. Financially, this means replacing pre-crisis assumptions with conflict-specific data, securing whatever contractual and insurance relief is available, and ensuring the owner has a clear and honest view of how long the asset can sustain current conditions.

FINANCIAL (Articles 1, 2, 11)
ACTION	DETAIL	RESPONSIBLE
Recalculate break-even	Conflict variables: energy, security, supply chain, aviation. Model as range. Track daily.	Asset Manager / Finance
Cash runway	Weeks at current burn. Evacuation reserves. Capital call trigger per scenario.	Owner / Asset Manager
HMA negotiations	Force majeure. Fee abatement, test suspension, FF&E deferral, marketing reduction, reporting.	Asset Manager / Legal
Revenue guardrails	Conflict-period rate ceiling. Separate institutional channels. Premium justified by tangible value.	Asset Manager / Revenue
Insurance review	War-risk exclusions, BI coverage, personnel liability. File claims. Identify gaps.	Owner / Asset Manager

Operationally, establishing control is right-sizing the hotel to what can be run safely and sustainably, whilst protecting the staff and the physical asset through a period of genuine security risk.

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OPERATIONAL (Articles 3, 4)
ACTION	DETAIL	RESPONSIBLE
Consolidate	Single floor, single outlet. Expand in-building services. Skeleton crew staffing model.	Operator / GM
Staff triage	Three tiers. Budget each. Hardship allowances, family evacuation, on-site housing.	Operator HR / AM
Secure the asset	Enhanced access, perimeter, communications. Evaluate safe room feasibility.	Operator / Security
Mental health	EAP partnership. Manager training. Peer support structures.	Operator HR

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On the revenue side, it means accepting that traditional demand has largely disappeared and redirecting commercial energy towards the segments that remain active, so that the asset generates whatever income is realistically available rather than waiting for conditions to normalise.

REVENUE (Articles 8, 10, 11)
ACTION	DETAIL	RESPONSIBLE
Pivot sales	From suspended Western to active: GCC corporate, institutional, non-Western, religious tourism.	Operator Sales
F&B presence	Iftar/Eid. Delivery/dark kitchen. Institutional catering. COVID-era innovations sustained.	F&B / GM
Forecast rebuild	Rolling 90-day by segment, updated weekly. Transit demand modelled separately.	Revenue / AM

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Days 31 to 60: Strategic Assessment

When immediate survival has been secured, the owner now has sufficient operational data to evaluate medium-term positioning, though the outcome of the conflict remains uncertain. This phase is about making informed strategic decisions without overcommitting capital or resources.

On Capex and Positioning, the objective is to move from defensive holding to deliberate decision making. With conflict conditions now better understood, the owner can assess which investments to protect, which to accelerate and which to defer, whilst also evaluating whether the current brand and operating model remains the right fit for the market that is actually active rather than the one that existed before the crisis.

CAPEX & POSITIONING (Articles 5, 6, 7)
ACTION	DETAIL	RESPONSIBLE
CapEx readiness	Four-variable matrix. Phased modules with decision gates. Public areas first.	Asset Manager / Owner
Brand evaluation	Distribution performance vs. active markets. Franchise economics. Exploratory conversations.	Asset Manager
Safe room / shelter	Feasibility assessment. Dual-purpose design. Discreet communication plan.	Asset Manager / Security
GCC visa strategy	If unified visa accelerates, reassess drive-to catchment. Multi-destination packages.	Asset Manager / Sales
Wellness / medical	Adjacent hospital partnerships. Third-party operator model. Recovery suite specifications.	Asset Manager / Development

On recovery planning, the goal is to ensure that when conditions shift, the asset is not caught unprepared. Rather than committing to a single forecast, the owner builds three credible and fully resourced plans in parallel, so that the commercial and operational response can be activated immediately rather than designed under pressure.

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Days 61 to 90: Recovery Positioning

The asset is stabilised and the strategy is in place. Attention shifts to competitive positioning ahead of the recovery, capturing returning demand and communicating confidence to investors.

At portfolio level, the objective is to convert the analytical work of the previous 60 days into clear decisions on where to invest, hold or exit, whilst identifying acquisition opportunities that the crisis may have created. On the commercial side, the goal is to ensure the asset is positioned to capture recovery demand before it fully materialises, with every product, partnership and marketing effort ready to deploy the moment conditions improve.

INSTITUTIONAL & PORTFOLIO (Articles 12, 14)
ACTION	DETAIL	RESPONSIBLE
Portfolio triage	Invest, maintain, or divest per asset. Scenario-weighted recovery projections.	CIO / Asset Manager
Competitive mapping	Identify likely exits by vulnerability factors. Model demand capture. Evaluate acquisitions.	Asset Manager / Revenue
Branded residence strategy	Rental pool activation. Longer-stay capture. Brand integration with hotel operations.	Asset Manager / Development
Destination marketing	Coordinate with DMO. Familiarization programs. Anchor event identification.	Asset Manager / Marketing
Investor communication	Performance, actions taken, scenario projections, recommendations. In person where possible.	Asset Manager / Owner

Certain disciplines must run in parallel across all three stages regardless of how the conflict evolves. The goal is to maintain the conditions under which good decisions can be made. Documentation ensures that every decision taken under pressure is recorded, protecting the owner legally and providing the evidential foundation for conversations with operators, lenders and investors.

CONTINUOUS (All Articles)
ACTION	DETAIL	RESPONSIBLE
Monitor trajectory	Track daily. Update scenario probabilities weekly. Adjust plans accordingly.	Asset Manager
Maintain three plans	Plans A, B, C current. Execute within 72 hours of scenario becoming reality.	Asset Manager / Operator
Preserve optionality	Evaluate every decision against impact on future flexibility.	Asset Manager / Owner
Communicate	Weekly to ownership. Monthly to investors. Daily to operator.	Asset Manager
Document everything	All decisions, negotiations, cost actions, insurance claims. Contemporaneous records.	Asset Manager / Legal

A final observation on the checklist itself. The volume of concurrent actions across financial, operational, revenue, and strategic dimensions is precisely why specialist asset management exists as a discipline. No single individual within the ownership structure or the operating team has the cross-functional visibility required to execute all five workstreams simultaneously while holding every party accountable. The asset manager is the integrator: the one role with visibility across all four phases, authority to challenge both owner assumptions and operator decisions, and a mandate that begins and ends with the asset’s value.

The crisis is temporary. The competitive advantage earned during it is durable.

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Adnan Shamim

Managing Partner, Middle East & Africa

Juan Manuel Gea

Chief of Staff